CL

Historical Beat Rate and Post-Earnings Drift

CL has reported an earnings beat in all of the last eight quarters, producing a 100% beat rate with an average earnings surprise of 3.3%. That pattern means the company has exceeded the published consensus estimate every report going back at least two years. The average 5-day price move in the trading sessions after those reports is 2.13% to the upside, classified as an upward post-earnings drift. Looking at the four most recent reports, actual EPS came in at $0.97 versus a $0.943 estimate on May 1, 2026, $0.95 versus $0.912 on January 30, 2026, $0.91 versus $0.889 on October 31, 2025, and $0.92 versus $0.897 on August 1, 2025. The next-day reactions to those beats were -2.17%, +1.77%, -2.69%, and -0.18%. Over the following five sessions the stock posted 0.33%, 4.56%, 2.22%, and 1.41% moves, recovering or extending in three of the four prints. The data shows that a beat has not guaranteed a next-day rally, but the multi-day directional tendency has been higher.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the July 31 Report

The next scheduled report is July 31, 2026, before the market open, with a published consensus EPS estimate of $0.947. Because CL has beaten estimates in every one of the last eight quarters with an average surprise of 3.3%, the options market may price in a higher probability of another beat and an elevated expected move. The market's real expectation, or the unofficial consensus, can differ from the published figure and can show up in how straddles and strangles are priced heading into the report. Implied volatility usually rises before the release, then compresses once the headline passes, a dynamic known as volatility crush. If the realized move is smaller than the move implied by the options, premium sellers benefit. If CL follows its historical 2.13% five-day upward drift but does so gradually, buyers of short-dated calls can see gains eroded by time decay and falling IV even when the direction is right.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

CL is classified in the Consumer Defensive/Household & Personal Products sector, and its current technical snapshot reflects that defensive positioning. With the stock at $90.75, just $0.12 above the 50-day EMA of $90.63, and the RSI at 48.1, CL sits in a neutral technical zone going into the July 31 pre-open report. A disciplined trader does not assume the 100% beat rate will repeat; instead, they watch the opening gap relative to the $90.63 EMA and whether the first 30 minutes of volume confirms or rejects that level. They also compare the reported EPS against the $0.947 consensus and against the 3.3% average surprise benchmark. They track how the 5-day drift unfolds versus the historical 2.13% average, looking for follow-through or failure. Finally, they monitor implied volatility contraction and whether the options market's expected move was overstated or understated relative to the actual price action.

For a deeper dive into how institutional research desks and the broader sell side are positioned around CL's July 31 release, review the full institutional verdict on the ticker page.