CL

What CL's earnings track record shows about the stock's post-report drift

CL has beaten the published EPS estimate in every one of the last eight reported quarters, an 8/8 (100%) beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 3.3%. Across those same eight reports, the average 5-day price move over the five trading days following the release was 2.13%, classified as an upward drift. Those two figures together show that, historically, the company has outrun the consensus and the stock has generally drifted higher in the week after the report.

The most recent four quarters illustrate that the immediate next-day move has not always followed the beat mechanically. On 2026-05-01, CL reported actual EPS of $0.97 against an estimate of $0.943, a 2.9% surprise, yet the stock fell 2.17% the next day and rose just 0.33% over the following five days. On 2026-01-30, actual EPS of $0.95 beat the $0.912 estimate by 4.2%, sending the stock up 1.77% the next day and 4.56% over the next five sessions. On 2025-10-31, a $0.91 actual versus an $0.889 estimate, a 2.4% surprise, was followed by a 2.69% single-day decline and a 2.22% five-day gain. On 2025-08-01, actual EPS of $0.92 beat the $0.897 estimate by 2.6%, yet the stock slipped 0.18% the next day and gained 1.41% over the following five days. So the pattern is stronger over a five-day window than on the headline reaction day.

Options-flow dynamics heading into the July 31 report

CL's next scheduled earnings release is on 2026-07-31 before the open, with the official consensus EPS estimate at $0.95. At the current snapshot, the stock trades at $92.98, the RSI is 53.9, and the 50-day EMA sits at $90.50. Short-dated options usually see implied volatility rise into the report and then compress afterward through post-earnings implied-volatility crush. Traders can compare the at-the-money straddle price to the recent one-day realized reactions, which ranged from -2.69% to +1.77% across the last four quarters, and to the 2.13% average five-day drift.

Because CL has beaten in 8 of the last 8 quarters, the market's real expectation may be tighter than the published consensus and could also embed tail risk for any interruption of the streak. Flow can concentrate in calls slightly above the spot price or downside hedges, with open-interest clusters often found around round-number strikes near $90.00, $95.00, and $100.00. Dealer gamma positioning around those strikes can magnify intraday moves if the post-report price lands close to a max-gamma level. In Consumer Defensive/Household & Personal Products, the sector's lower beta can also compress the implied move relative to more volatile groups, so a 2.13% average five-day drift can still represent meaningful edge when expressed through the right structure.

A disciplined checklist for the July 31 reaction

A disciplined trader watches how the realized result compares to the $0.95 consensus, what the underlying sales direction and guidance imply, and whether the immediate move matches or exceeds the volatility that was priced into the options. Key reference points are the 100% eight-quarter beat rate, the 3.3% average earnings surprise, the 2.13% average five-day upward drift, and the recent next-day reactions that included both negative and positive prints despite beats. Price structure also matters: pre-market levels versus the 50-day EMA at $90.50 and the RSI at 53.9 give context for whether the stock is entering the event near neutral momentum or extended.

Post-release, compare the realized move with the implied move, track how quickly implied volatility collapses, and watch whether the five-day drift repeats or breaks from the historical +2.13% tendency. A report that simply matches the consensus or misses could behave very differently from the prior eight quarters, which is why scenario planning matters more than directional prediction.

For a deeper dive, look at the full institutional verdict on CL, including recent estimate revisions, price-target dispersion, fund-flow dynamics, and sell-side rating shifts ahead of the 2026-07-31 pre-open release.